|To understand why Mr Trump's 1461 day presidency to end of 2020 was likely to be the most dangerous whomever ruled the wavelengths, BRI.school invites you to co-edit a 7 minute read on a short history of world trade in millennium 2 - see far right column. In Moore's laws maths -this period's exponential rise breaches singularity - for first one computer chip has more switching/analytic capacity than the human brain's cells- tenmoore.com - The Games|
INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION 4 : special china thanks: BRI Belt Road IQ -need custom guide rsvp email@example.com normanmacrae foundation, DC-text 240 316 8157
Main reason for optimism is leapfrogging - thats when a society/place that was excluded from industrial age networks leapfrogs an old system to a new one thanks to 1000 times more COMstech than 1946; about a third of the world never had wired telephone lines, now almost all have mobile (text version); more than a quarter of the world never had electricity grids, now microsolar is linking in;. Prior to 2017 only Jim Kim open spaced this debated in DC: let's hope all parents and youth do now from usa to china to Rome, from Scotland to Argentina, from Bangalore to Haiti. from . G1 G2. Join Valuetrue.com and QBG -does your place have a JYK to celebrate global youth? futures of Liberty 1 & education 1
|Even as the 1960s moon race inspired the world, we need to understand how unequal the opporttunity to innovate had been - even in the 1960s as many as half the world's people had no access to electricity grids so they got their news of the moon race by word of mouth.|
Consider 1000-1500- until the last few years of this period , the known world was Europe-Asia and NE Africa; #BR8 the med sea was the main world trade waterway; places facing this sea increasingly developed win-win trades; moreover #BR7 the west asian border to med sea was the start of an amazing overland relay of traders which stretched all the way to china (the silk road was the greatest overland world trade route ever and to sustain its interfacing markets required positive cross-cultural bridging all along its route. Silks and spices from the Chinese end acted like a positive currency- there was much demand for them whose value naturally went up the further they were merchanted back to Europe. Everyone gained for this trading route- you can read marco polo's diaries- perhaps nowhere invested more in artistic celebrations of being a major hub of positive trade than his hometown venice in europe and the town he was asked to govern for 2 years in china Hangzhou which marco described as the great town of markets in the world.)
What happened towards 1500 that 2 long shipping routes were discovered by north europeans- the new world of the ameriucas to the west (#BR6 N, #BR10 what we now call Latin America), and a way of reaching the @BR2 South Asian coastal Belt (starting with the indian subcontinent) by sailing around africa. A ship captain couldnt affird such a long return voyage unless he goit what trade he wanted- soon this big ships were equipped with gun power and crews were pressganged or even enslaved. Next in the process was colonising. So it was that nations became big by pludering economies of other peoples places. Back in 1500 places economic size was corelated with population. Soon Britain grew at the expense particularly of the Indian subcontiuent. Mainly Britain and France colonised Africa too, Spain andPotrtugal colonised Latin America. North America was settled by a mixyure of Europeans whose declaration of Indendence in 1776 ended any attempt by Britain to colonise America, But we should note that the USA was built on a sort of internal colonisation - natives had theor places taken over and slaves were used to do most of the hard labour. In effect the old war's colonial ways casued the 2 world wars of the fkirst half of the 20th C. From 1946 most of the world's countries regained their independence but starting from (mainly undeveloped states - poverty that the colonia era had gtraped them in).
Ironically whule the UDA came to tghe resuce of the old workld and from 1946 helped relaunch the two biggest losers of world war 2 Germsny and Japan, american (not withstandiong thair family trees origins) had previously had little modern of knowledge of Eurasia but were pulled into peacekeeping and the cold war with russia through the sceond half of the 20th C. Whilst there was some understanding of the extraoerdinary progress japanese enginers made with electornics, civil and other enginnering, the rise and rise of the east and the often difficult bodrers that had been caused by British and Jpoanese colonisation of the region are not deeply studied by most Americans or their media. It should be the best news the world has ever seen that the fifth of the world in chjna tghat closed itself to the world for more than a centiry after Brfits has offered opium as a gtrading currency in 1860 is now as entrepreneurial as anywhere. With over half of tghe world's ;people facikng either the sout asia or east asia coastal belts, the opportunity the east is cfreating to win0pwin gtrade oin line with moore's ever increasing technology should make sustainable youth worlwdie the gfreatesty positive curency-invetsment the human race has ever mapped. But this is not how USA or the block of coungtriues ruled by the Euro have marketed transapfrently. Instead we are caught in the Keynsian crisis of economist not valuing the hippocratic oathes he had published as tghe final chapter of the ngeneral throy of employment money and interest. The 2020s are likely to make the system designs our tech spreads irreversible- will the end game be big brother extinction or little sister sustainability?
Tuesday, March 26, 2019
reading current issue -wondered if anyone on your team would like to share views with me
my father's life work at The Economist was in part about need for 21st c journalism to get out of advertising journalism and into livelihood education
for example our 1984 book the 2025 report (chapter 6 - whole book) argued that it would be disastrous if new media was designed as an appendix to mass tv and hopeful for millennials as first sustainability generation if it changed education
friends in new zealand were the first to take this further The Learning Web - Home Page - from primary up they7 empowered every student to be a video journalist - flipping the classroom from examining the kids to hubbing the future - for over a decade the new year holiday of participating schools involved a weeks radio program on whats the next billion dollar market that only new zealanders can start up
things went well until 10 million people bought the chinese edition of the book but the author ended up with negative cashflow as court costs for trying to get any royalties nearly sunk him
anyhow my greatest heroes are both teachers and journalists but not on either's old model - whatever the rights and wrongs of us versus china i sincerely hope that jack ma is regarded as a worldwide person in his changeover to education and that some media people join him - if there are 4 languages every millennial needed to be literate in (mother tongue) + english chinese and coding then clearly he values that three in one with more practical joy and goodwill multiplication than anyone in congress or across europe with or without english speakers webs
i come up to new york from dc every other fortnight if anyone has time for a chat
chris macrae family foundation norman macrae http://www.normanmacrae.net
christopher macrae (@christo20639561) | Twitter DC 240 316 8157
Monday, March 25, 2019
Dear Gordon and Sarah Brown is there a way i9 can update your team on 13 years of work linked to brac and yunus in bangladesh, and more recently china -We helped glasgow university launch journal of social business. On father norman macrae's death the japan embassy in dhaka helped stage 2 roundtables to our number 1 hero sir fazle abed and his future networks brac university and bkash.com (now partnered by jack ma and bill gates)- it began as my father's last research during a life that evolved from teen in raf serving over modernday myanmar, being tutored as end-poverty economist by keynes, journallsiing east-west trade and entrepreneurial revolution (the latter launched with romano prodi 1976). there's still a lot to do in edutech for poorest girls. How can i exchange details with one of your team members.. I live in DC but would urgently go anywhere to discuss latest on eg sir fazle abed. firstname.lastname@example.org 1 240 316 8157 www.normanmacrae.net www.brentrance.net The next year 2019-20 in Japan is best chance to remap many thing trump has fragmented and brexit has wasted time on as we race into decade of more computer minds than humans.
Saturday, March 23, 2019
Dear Professor Acharya
my family (international scots that have worked on mediating peoples projects in a majority of countries) has never believed that superpower can sustain a hyperconnected humanity but i am not yet informed of all the nuances of your multiplex framework -it would be wonderful if you do have time for a coffee
my father Norman Macrae's 1984 book The 2025 Report on would we just-in-time invest in millennials as SDgeneration? (in which i co-authored on the edutech side) - argued that the berlin wall would fall and that would be the time to mediate an end of superpower- and that by year 2000, man would need to understand greatest risk as discrepancies in incomes and expectations of rich and poor nations- by my fathers timelines we are now exponentially out of sync, with the AI-G5 decade of "moore" computer brains than human ones - not the situation he would have hoped for any of us
long before that, dad's surveys at The Economist http://www.normanmacrae.net had supported from 1962 post colonial models which were emerging in the east, and which bridged japanese and eu economies of the 1960s- dad had been the only journalist at messina's birth of EU
right now i trust connecting eastern maps/solutions far more than trump or a brexited eu - how much has turned since spring 2017 when young world citizens seemed to be in a good SDgoals orbit with belt road summit in beijing and AIIB in south korea with un world bank pope francis all connecting human geo-economics and many leapfrog solutions from technology emerging
would love to know which leaders maps you recommend students should be trying to linkin
since father died, friends and i organised a strong collection of adam smith scholars around deep girl empowerment solutions but they have not bridged with my fathers main connections in japan and what i really want to know now : is huawei the best or the worst technology for grassroots sustainability networking - britain has spent many years auditing that but i havent been able to unlock that secret yet!
sincerely chris macrae bethesda 240 316 8157
Friday, March 15, 2019
Breaking good news Alibaba Wavemaker
hello i wanted to comment on alan's mail today as well as share it with some of you who may not know alan's work (apologies i am also new to it but not the south china post more generally)
chris macrae whats app +1 240 316 8157 tweet obamauni List ALI - all errors mine alone----------------------
takeouts from Alan's mail if i understand correctly
us and chinese economies are interconnected and will be win-wins unless trump-forces - including his deliberate attempt to make japan and korea ever more abusive of each other - go on rupturing human capital and market relationships
turning to the youth as the only positive currency of the AI era and so changing education in particular, the scandal that at least 8 top us university admissions can be bought is something china has already experienced and publicly sought to rectify
below i have reproduced dad and my's 1984 book summary (full download - we argued then and now that education as designed by british empire was not concerned with youth livelihoods and its standard examinations would kill off sustainability of our species as technology tipped us- elements of this argument are over 100 years old if you know gandhi/montesorri or over 250 years old if you know adam smith
as you can see people traditionally inside the education system will never on their own change in livelihood education we parents need to seek - nor will economists who refuse to model at community (let alone the border level) level www.economistrefugee.com
- for myself I am always interested in exchanging ideas .. as long as they involve urgent and potentially scalable experiments in which youth -particularly girls- are centred
what i would like to say is even if alan is correct in saying that temporarily china (to avoid the corruption us big colleges have just demonstrated) has gone back to one mega exam to get into college it also has many of youth and sustainability worlds most exciting experiments naturally arising from having over half a billion under 30s energies to web
there is a whole city that has ended exams at primary - instead students choose 100 books whose meaning they have to present to their classmates before they can exit primary
also last year china started introducing AI in primary schools especially girls - there are many exciting possibilities of this experiment
1 AI has to be programmed by someone voice- who is more sustainable than 9 year old girls- even the ford foundation and plan international have come up with that conclusion 2 years ago
2 there is a view that the most exciting AI involves teacher training assistants- you could go far beyond amazons alexis - before a girls goes to sleep she could tell the smartest alexis in 5 years time- this is a skill i want to learn tomorrow- overnight the alexis can have prepped what practices she needs to experience that skill or explained there are other thing she needs to do first- of course i am not arguing this as an individual thing- a girls teacher could do the same nightly exercise- in china schools that used to be most excluded because they were in remote villages have been connected by Shanghai Unicorn Hujiang in a 20000 virtual live classroom currently moderated by beijings best teachers but in the future surely ai assisted
3 to get rid of examination and debt, smart cities/ nations will blockchain children own dashboards of qualifications- why shouldnt the child own her own certificate of qualifications= those who know of flow research at peter drucker's university claremont will know that genii are those who have maximised how much of their lifetime they have spengt at the experienntial edge of their own practical competences - the exact opposite of standard examination
it was my familys argument over 60 years now that if say usa could afford to put 5000 brains on a moon race in 1960s it could afford to put more brains on something like khan academy but much much moore as ai advanced- the fact that it hasnt is a measure of how far usa has become an outlier from helping girls lead the sustainability generation - i strongly recommend bbc examination of huawei carried out by same moderator as last world bank summit jakarta where the elad panel involved jim kim jack ma and nilekani - the bbc has lost world service purpose for 30 years but is now ready for a comeback Huawei: The world's most controversial company - BBC News
I dont expect agreement but if you know any spaces where we can openly mix these things up so that it is a debate for all youth not a debate for top down governments then now is certainly english language's last call what with brexit and trump- meanwhile to all chinese friends particular;y of jack ma- carry on regardless of the wrong sort of lunatic systems that fake media, big brothers and dismally lazy regulators are burdening we the families and children of this world with
ps the best news this year is that brac university is now led aan academic that has spent most of his life in shenzen and hongkong- brac for those who dont know is the worlds largest ngo partnership and the first space to look at if yo0u are concerned with futures of poorest billion girls- on the fintech side jack ma and bill gates as well as those who originally coded mpesa in kenya or brought the first mobile experiments to asian villages a;ready linkin through brac
=================more historical detail of debate on how to prevent Fake Education
Back in 1984 , Norman Macrae wrote "The 2024 Report: a future history of the next 40 years". It was the first book to:
Our 1984 scenario of an internetworking world
Changing communications, and what makes people distant, bossy, etc
Changing national politics
Our 1984 scenario of an internetworking world
The great technological event of the next 40 years will be the steady rise in importance of the Telecommunications-Computer terminal (TC for short)... Eventually books, files, television programmes, computer information and telecommunications will merge. We'll have this portable object which is a television screen with first a typewriter, later a voice activator attached. Afterwards it will be minaturised so that your personal access instrument can be carried in your buttonhole, but there will be these cheap terminals around everywhere, more widely than telephones of 1984. The terminals will be used to access databases anywhere in the globe, and will become the brainworker's mobile place of work. Brainworkers, which will increasingly mean all workers, will be able to live in Tahiti if they want to and telecommute daily to the New York or Tokyo or Hamburg office through which they work. In the satellite age costs of transmission will not depend mainly on distance. And knowledge once digitalised can be replicated for use anywhere almost instantly.
Over the last decade, I have written many articles in The Economist and delivered lectures in nearly 30 countries across the world saying the future should be much more rosy. This book explores the lovely future people could have if only all democrats made the right decisions.
Norman Macrae, 1984.
Changing communications, and what makes people distant, bossy etc
Telecommunications are now recognised as the third of the three great transport revolutions that have, in swift succession, transformed society in the past two hundred years. First, were the railways; second the automobile; and third, telecommunications-attached-to-the-computer, which was bound to be the most far-reaching because in telecommunications, once the infrastructure is installed, the cost of use does not depend greatly on distance. So by the early years of the twenty-first century brainworkers - which in rich countries already meant most workers - no longer need to live near their work.
All three revolutions were opposed by the ruling establishments of their time, and therefore emerged fastest where government was weak. All three brought great new freedoms to the common man, but the railway and motor-car ages temporarily made access to capital the most important source of economic power. As most men and women did not like being bossed about by capitalists who could become more powerful because they were born stinking rich, they voted to give greater economic power to governments during the railway and motor-car ages. This was economically inefficient, and also made tyrannies more likely and more terrible. The information revolution was fortunately the exact opposite of the steam engine's industrial revolution and of Henry Ford's mass production automobile revolution in this respect. The steam engine and mass production has made start-up costs for the individual entrepreneur larger and larger, so that in both the steam and automobile ages to quote Bell Canada's Gordon Thompson in the early 1970s, there was 'no way an ordinary citizen could walk into a modern complex factory and use its facilities to construct something useful for himself'. But, as Thompson forecast, the databases of the next decades were places into which every part-time enthusiast could tele-commute. In all jobs connected with the use of information, start-up costs for the individual entrepreneur in 1984-2024 have grown smaller and smaller. It was 'never thus', said Thompson, 'with power shovels and punch presses'.
In consequence, in the TC age, the most important economic resource is no longer ownership of or access to capital, but has become the ability to use readily available knowledge intelligently and entrepreneurially.
Changing national politics
For a region's people to succeed in the Telecommuting Age there are four main requirements - satisfied in places as far apart ad Guam and Queensland and Cape Province and California and Penang and Scotland. First , as the prophet John Naisbitt said in 1982, 'the languages needed for the immediate future are computer and English'. Second, the area has to be a nice one in which to live. Third, it is important that all income earners should adapt happily to a 'cafeteria of compensation' schemes. These allow the individual employee to decide what mix (s)he wants of salary, job objectives, career aims, flexitime, job sharing, long or short holidays, fringe benefits or fringe nuisances. Fourth, there needs to be a competitive and quickly changing telecommunications system. The TC age is making understanding of these requirements increasingly transparent among human beings worldwide.
Governments at first tried to impede or regulate much of this, but an early discovery of the Telecommutung age was that we could change the way we chose our governments. Until the 1990s we had pretended to ourselves that we could alter our lifestyles by choosing on each Tuesday or Thursday every four years whether Mr Reagan or Mr Carter , Mrs Thatcher or Mr Kinnock, was putting on the tribal demonstration which at that particular moment annoyed us less. After the advent of the TC we found that the more sensible and direct way in which a free man or woman could choose government was by voting with his or her feet. The individual could go to live in any area where the government - which could from then on be a very local government - permitted the lifestyle, rules and customs which suited that human being.
The introduction of the international Centrobank was the last great act of government before government grew much less important. It was not a conception of policy-making governments at all, but emerged from the first computerised town meeting of the world.
By 2005 the gap in income and expectations between the rich and poor nations was recognised to be man's most dangerous problem. Internet linked television channels in sixty-eight countries invited their viewers to participate in a computerised conference about it, in the form of a series of weekly programmes. Recommendations tapped in by viewers were tried out on a computer model of the world economy. If recommendations were shown by the model to be likely to make the world economic situation worse, they were to be discarded. If recommendations were reported by the model to make the economic situation in poor countries better, they were retained for 'ongoing computer analysis' in the next programme.
In 2024 it is easy to see this as a forerunner of the TC conferences which play so large a part in our lives today, both as pastime and principal innovative device in business. But the truth of this 2005 breakthrough tends to irk the highbrow. It succeeded because it was initially a rather downmarket network television programme. About 400 million people watched the first programme, and 3 million individuals or groups tapped in suggestions. Around 99 per cent of these were rejected by the computer as likely to increase the unhappiness of mankind. It became known that the rejects included suggestions submitted by the World Council of Churches and by many other pressure groups. This still left 31,000 suggestions that were accepted by the computer as worthy of ongoing analysis. As these were honed, and details were added to the most interesting, an exciting consensus began to emerge. Later programmes were watched by nearly a billion people as it became recognised that something important was being born.
These audiences were swollen by successful telegimmicks. The presenter of the first part of the first programme was a roly-poly professor who was that year's Nobel laureate in economics, and who proved a natural television personality. He explained that economists now agreed that aid programmes could sometimes help poor countries, but sometimes most definitely made their circumstances worse. When Mexico was inflating at over 80 per cent a year in the early 1980s , the inflow to it of huge loanable funds made its inflation even faster and its crash more certain. The professor set Mexico's 1979-1981 economy on the model, pumped in the loaned funds and showed how all the indicators ( higher inflation, lower real gross domestic product and so on) then flashed red, signaling an economy getting worse, rather than green, signaling an economy getting better. ..The professor then put the model back to mirror the contemporary world of 2005, and played into it various nostrums that had been recommended by politicians of left, right and centre, but mostly left. The dials generally flashed red. Then the professor provided another set of recommendations , and asked viewers who wished to play to tap in their own guesses on the consequent movement of key economics variables in the model. Those who got their guesses right to within a set error were told they had qualified for a second round of a knock-out economic guesstimators' world championship. Knockout competitions of this sort continued for viewers throughout the series of programmes.
In the second part of that first programme, the presenters dared to introduce two political decisions into the game. They said that government-to-government aid programmes had been particularly popular among politicians during the age of over-government, but there was growing agreement that government-to-government aid was the worst method of hand-out. The excessive role played by governments in poor countries was one of the barriers to their economic advance, and a main destroyer of their people's freedom. Could anyone have thought it would be wise to give aid to President Mbogo?
In consequence, the most successful economic aid programmes had been those operated through the International Monetary Fund, which imposed conditions on how borrowing governments should operate. The professor showed that IMF-monitored operations in most years had brought more green flashes from the model than red. But this involved IMF officials - often from the rich countries - in telling governments of poor countries what to do; and one of the objectives of this town meeting of the world was to diminish such embarrassments.
The first questions to be asked in the next few programmes, said the compilers, were 1) which countries should qualify for aid? ; and having decided that, 2) up to what limits and conditions? ; and 3) through what mechanisms? They promised that later programmes after the first half-dozen would examine how any scheme could be used to diminish the power of governments and increase the power of free markets and free people.
In a typical 21st C scene, obedience to consumer needs is shown by every car plant in the world because of better and more customised information available on all our TCs. Most people buying a car in 2024 will key into their special requirements into their TCs.
The TC will reply: "You can get a customised car which meets all of your specifications by putting personalised instructions on the software of the assembly line's robots in one of these factories (choice of nine) requesting that the next car on the line be modified as you dictate. But that would cost up to $40,000 (Click to factories for quotations and credit facilities). For a fifth of that price, you can meet most of your requirements by the following standard computer programme at present scheduled for production in June at Nissan Kanpur; or July at Ford Manila (and so on). Click to factories for precise specifications and prices.
All of this has become commonplace after 2000. How has it affected employment?
For a new industry of 2019-2024 let us cite the intendedly short-lived example of the Clark-Schmidt Robot Gardener. Matthew Clark was a 53-year old on his third university course (he had started the other two at the ages of nineteen and thirty-seven respectively) telecommuted through the University of Southern California, although he took it while living in his native Australia , when, together with two other student's telecommuting through USC's database, he devised a system for a robot-driven lawnmower which could also scan soil and assess the possibilities for reseeding. It signaled the videos to be called up on your TC to show alternative uses for the soil in your garden. If you picked one video display that particularly suited your taste, you keyed in its number into the Robot Gardener and it signaled back, 'put such-and-such chemical into my tank and seeds 1234, 3456 (et cetera), plus software program 29387 - both orderable through your TC - into my reseeder.'
Clark and his two colleagues put their tentative ideas for this device on the researchers' database monitored by the University of Southern California. The entry numbers to the USC database were held by people who had promised to accept the computer's judgement of the value of any ideas they might contribute to projects entered on it. In all, 1213 people - domiciled from Hanoi through Penang and Capri and Bermuda back to Queensland in Australia itself - tapped in suggestions for improvements, of which 176 were accepted nby the computer as worthwhile. The payments recommended by the computer ranged from $42 ( for a cosmetic improvement recommended by an eleven-year-old schoolboy) to one tenth of the equity (eventually worth several million dollars) for a proposal by a research team from another telecommuting university which proved important enough for Clark to feel slightly guilty about calling the Robot Gardener after himself.
When the improvements suggested by these 176 contributors had been incorporated by Clark into the appropriate software program for making the Robot Gardener , it was advertised on USC's entrepreneur-browsing program available on any TC. Entry numbers for the lowest echelons of this can be bought for a very few dollars, but the Robot Gardener was put on a higher echelon because USC's computer had signaled this was a potential quick winner.
One of those who had paid for an expensive entry number into browsing among good 'proffered opportunity products' (POPs) was a Dutchman called Carl Schmidt. He had become a successful 'arranging producer' in an earlier venture, and now occupied himself browsing through his TC looking for a second bonanza. He made an offer to Clark to tale an option for launch in return for a fairly complicates programme of profit sharing, which in practice (because arranging is nowadays a more skilled job than inventing) eventually gave Schmidt more money than Clark. Clark accepted this and Schmidt produced a prototype within three days by reprogramming robots in an experimental plant. A video of the prototype was put on consumers' TC channels worldwide the next week, and most of the 400 odd gardeners' TC channels round the world picked it out within days as a 'best buy'.
Schmidt's video advertisement said 'If you key in your order now with your credit number, you can get a Robot Gardener for a bargain price (applies to the first 10,000 orders only). Tenders are also invited for part of the equity.' The advance orders and bids for equity made it possible to finance assembly of the Robot Gardener for early-bid customers within a few weeks...
Note that there was never any intention that Robot Gardeners Inc should grow into a huge and long-lasting company. Clark and Schmidt are already researching and browsing into other possibilities, on separate courses. About fifty of those who succeeded by early participation in this venture hope to become the equivalent of Clark and Schmidt in other things.
At no stage has this enormously successful manufacturing venture employed more than 1000 people. It is therefore true that the loss of nine-tenths of manufacturing jobs , which we saw has been highest in car-making in rich countries, has also been true there in manufacturing jobs as a whole. Where these countries had 20-40 per cent of their workforces in manufacturing in 1974, they typically have 2-4 per cent now.
This is not an unprecedented rundown. In the 1890s around half of the workforce in countries like the United States were in three occupations: agriculture, domestic service and jobs to do with horse transport. By the 1970s these three were down to 4 per cent of the workforce. If this had been foretold in the 1890s, there would have been a wail. It would have been said that half the population was fit only to be farmworkers, parlourmaids and sweepers-up of horse manure. Where would this half find jobs? The answer was by the 1970s the majority of them were much more fully employed ( because more married women joined the workforce) doing jobs that would have sounded double-Dutch in the 1890s: extracting oil instead of fish out of the North Sea; working as computer programmers, or as television engineers, or as package-holiday tour operators chartering jet aircraft.
The move in jobs in the past fifty years in the rich countries has been out of manufacturing and into telecommuting.
There has been a sea-change in the traditional ages on man. Compared with 1974 our children in 2024 generally go out to paid work (especially computer programming work) much earlier, maybe starting at nine, maybe at twelve, and we do not exploit them. But young adults of twenty-three to forty-five stay at home to play much more than in 1974; it is quite usual today for one parent (probably now generally the father, although sometimes the mother) to stay at home during the period when young children are growing up. And today adults of forty-three to ninety-three go back to school - via computerised learning - much more than they did in 1974.
In most of the rich countries in 2024 children are not allowed to leave school until they pass their Preliminary Exam. About 5 per cent of American children passed their exam last year before their eight birthday, but the median age for passing it in 2024 is ten-and-a-half, and remedial education is generally needed if a child has not passed it by the age of fifteen.
A child who passes his Prelim can decide whether to tale a job at once, and take up the remainder of his twelve years of free schooling later; or he can pass on to secondary schooling forthwith, and start to study for his Higher Diploma.
The mode of learning for the under-twelves is nowadays generally computer-generated. The child sits at home or with a group of friends or (more rarely) in an actual, traditional school building. She or he will be in touch with a computer program that has discovered , during a preliminary assessment, her or his individual learning pattern. The computer will decide what next questions to ask or task to set after each response from each child.
A school teacher assessor, who may live half a world away, will generally have been hired, via the voucher system by the family for each individual child. A good assessor will probably have vouchers to monitor the progress of twenty-five individual children, although some parents prefer to employ groups of assessors - one following the child's progress in emotional balance, one in mathematics, one in civilized living, and so on - and these groups band together in telecommuting schools.
Many communities and districts also have on-the-spot 'uncles' and 'aunts'. They monitor childrens' educational performance by browsing through the TC and also run play groups where they meet and get to know the children personally...
Some of the parents who have temporarily opted out of employment to be a family educator also put up material on the TC s for other parents to consult. Sometimes the advice is given for free, sometimes as a business. It is a business for Joshua Ginsberg. He puts a parents advice newsletter on the TC , usually monthly. Over 300,000 people subscribe to it, nowadays at a 25-cent fee per person, or less if you accept attached advertisements. Here's an entry from the current newsletter:
"Now that TCs are universal and can access libraries of books, 3-d video, computer programs, you name it, it is clear that the tasks of both the Educator and the Communicator are far more stimulating that ten years ago.
One of my recent lessons with my ten-year-old daughter Julie was in art appreciation. In the standard art appreciation course the TC shows replicas of famous artists' pictures, and a computer asks the pupil to match the artist to the picture. Julie said to the computer that it would be fun to see Constable's Haywain as Picasso might have drawn it. The computer obliged with its interpretation , and then ten more stylised haywains appeared together with the question 'who might have drawn these?'. I believe we are the first to have prompted the TC along this road, but it may now become a standard question when the computer recognises a child with similar learning patterns to Julie's.
It is sometimes said that today's isolated sort of teaching has robbed children of the capacity to play and interact with other children. This is nonsense. We ensure that Julie and her four year old brother Pharon have lots of time to play with children in our neighbourhood . But in work we do prefer to interact with children who are of mutual advantage to Julie and to each other. The computer is an ace teacher, but so are people. You really learn things if you can teach them to someone else. Our computer has helped us to find a group of four including Julie with common interests, who each have expertise in some particular areas to teach the others.
The TC also makes it easier to play games within the family. My parents used to play draughts, halma, then chess with me. They used to try to be nice to me and let me win. This condescending kindness humiliated me, and I always worked frenetically to beat my younger brother (who therefore always lost and dissolved into tears.) Today Julie, Pharon and I play halma together against the graded computer, and Julie and I play it at chess. The computer knows Pharon's standard of play at halma and Julie's and mine at chess. Its default setting is at that level where each of us can win but only if we play at our best. Thus Pharon sometimes wins his halma game while Julie and I are simultaneously losing our chess game, and this rightly gives Pharon a feeling of achievement. When Julie and I have lost at chess, we usually ask the computer to re-rerun the game, stopping at out nmistakes and giving a commentary. As it is a friendly computer it does a marvelous job of consoling us. Last week it told Julie that the world champion actually once made the same mistake as she had done - would she like to see that game?
I intend to devote the next two letters to the subjects I have discussed here , but retailing the best of your suggestions instead of droning on with mine."
While the computer's role in children's education is mainly that of instructor (discovering a child's learning pattern and responding to it) and learning group matcher, its main role in higher education is as a store of knowledge. Although a computer can only know what Man has taught it, it has this huge advantage. No individual man lives or studies long enough to imbibe within himself all the skills and resources that are the product of the millennia of man's quest for knowledge, all the riches and details from man's inheritance of learning passed on from generation to generation. But any computer today can inherit and call up instantly any skill which exists anywhere in the form of a program.
This is why automatically updated databases are today the principal instruments of higher education and academic research. It is difficult for our generation to conceive that only forty years ago our scientists acted as tortoise-like discoverers of knowledge, confined to small and jealous cliques with random and restricted methods of communicating ideas. Down until the 1980s the world has several hundred sepaate cancer research organisations with no central co-ordinating database.
Brilliant? Batty? Start a discussion
Wednesday, March 13, 2019
I had a quick word with Robb at Brookings yesterday where he was on Panel Intel sponsored on US and China Artificial Intelligence https://www.brookings.edu/events/how-china-and-the-u-s-are-advancing-artificial-intelligence/ I asked if it was ok to specifically intro the two of you as people often in both Shanghai and US
I have met Peter several times and China-global cooperation events as well as at the 2017 http://www.aiib.org summit in S Korea (this summer its 100 banking delegations convene in Luxembourg! - since 2 of the top advisers to AIIB are the Brits Sir Danny Alexander in Beijing and my father's friend Lord Stern at LSE this is one of the few spaces where english language knowledge gets a reasoned hearing in today's world of brexit and Trumpdom)- whilst Peter is based in Dc he is often in Shanghai office
My own viewpoint is we are never going to help youth be the sustainable generation unless we clarify that smart SDG under 30s communities all over world need mainly common solutions to knowledge such as livelihood tech skills (where AI broadly means we human brains will soon be outnumbered by orders of magnitude more computer brains now that Moores law means each chip has many billions times more analytic capacity than time of moon race and G5 promises at least 100 fold moore connectivity than G4) ,, community markets include health service , local fashion superstars ... (the transformed purpose of the olympics)
Therefore it will be disastrous if usa and china go to war on ai in every market which seemed to be yesterday's view. In particular a PWC report claiming that China and USA are 70% of AI's world market was mentioned - sounds wrongly framed to me but .. anyhow as a counter example This linkedin interview is heartening to me -summarising his legacy from world bank Jim Y Kim says before leaving world bank mainly to ficus on african infrastructure banking he instituted an annual ranking of nations on human capital- japan singapore korea and norway come top - so we should not exclude these peoples from humanising AI if I understand Jim Kim and Antonio Guterres plan let alone Masa-Son's Vision Fund
I see AI as soft infrastructure that needs investment mapping at same time that "hard" inftrastructure is mapped to connect world trade routes Belt's Superports, Continents Railroads pipes etc
I thought you might be interested to contact each other whether or not you agree with my view. There are so few americans who really have experienced how fast china is being remade (with half a billion under 30s livelihoods driving this)
Ten years ago i first met the part of intel that has a partnership with my favorite womens empowerment networks in bangladesh- there is a lot to learn from what bangladesh has now connected cooperatively between ngos bill gates jack ma mit mpesa's original coders in kenya and others. That may be aside to your work but it is girl empowerment cases that particularly upset me with the way ai and belt road discussions are mainly framed in DC currently. In China AI is already a curriculum (even a literacy) for 7 year old girls up to share their humanity with- why not america?
chris macrae bethesda 1 240 316 8157 Norman Macrae Foundation The Economist's End Poverty Economist and Tech Futurist Norman Macrae : Books & Surveys at The Economist
ps 2 exceptions to maddening debates in DC are Axios which Intel is a major sponsor of AI on and Cheng Li the main scholar at Brookings who is actually chinese american. I assume you already know how to connect with these sources as much as you need but say if i can help
Saturday, March 9, 2019
next week i start specific research for studnet year 2019-2020 (10th last of SDGs) of japan's impacts in 10 global and local markets starting with textiles, fashions and pop stars -the most critical future market to all south asian girls as you both knew since rana plaza factory slating of 1000 girl workers and maiming of several thousand more- i will start with amy's japanese family friend lee who invented etextiles and miko who is japanese; I am also researching living co-recipients of the Emperors Order of the Rising Sun award- as you may have bothered to read my father's 1962 surveys onwards formed the strategic trade missions of uk , with romano prodi (EU) and japan cemented by prince charles with akio mostofa at the olympics in 1964 and by speeches my father scripted for prince charles- japans richest billionaire and forbes top 5 is owner of uniqlo which yunus has so far wasted in every possible way doing image not brand reality
clearly this market was core to future of girls livelihoods in bangladesh - in fact the reason i kept on sponsoring chinese girls who knew how girls-depressed messed up usa was back at sdg launch 2015 before the trump movement made this 10 times worse -amy september song - to visit sir fazle was always linked to this (it is no accident that every move trump makes is designed to cause conflicts between china japan and korea whereas my family has been trying to do the opposite since my first visits to tokyo in 1984 when i spent a decade working for unilever across asia on all of their womens brands- which you know about if you have ready my two books on the subject world class brands and brand chartering the later with the economist intelligence unit)
mostofa by failing over 5 months of last year to schedule 4 days of market discussions with jack ma's main economics researcher you have literally caused trillion dollars of damage but before that jonathan hubs have done opposite of supporting you at every stage- unless he pays me back all owed money by april 1 i will be starting a legal action against goodwill valuation of all hub partners of jonathan- chicago is where our black american hubs will start demanding reparation from jonathan hubs
regarding all the youth and market open space failures of yours mostofa i ask one last time- will ying lowrey still read something you send her - in which case what part of the stuff below do you understand- how do we send it to her and make sure that sir fazle and the new dean of brac university sees it too
we have the same brand goodwill multipliers problem that we faced with yunus in 2007 - by aiming to be sustainability girls -all of sdgs favorite community partnership real and #digitalcooperation brand - he was betting double or nothing on goodwill every 18 months at the same speed as moore law- he zeroised that in terms of what worldwide girls could do from 2010- the same time that jonathan hubs partnered hans instead of adam smith scholars
back at sir fazle's 80th birthday he started the same sort of challenge now he was the world s largest ngo partnership and gates and ma's benchmark bank for billion poorest- i dont want to see 2020 end the same way for brac as yunus did in 2010- i will host several 10th year remembrance parties of fathers work in 2010
all of the above failures could have been prevented if instead of failing to consult me as a principal funder at critical times both of you behaved in abnormal ways
chris macrae +1 240 316 8157 twitter lists of @obamauni linkedin articles of UNwomen
http://www.valuetrue.com Norman Macrae : Books & Surveys at The Economist http://www.quarterbilliongirls.com (aka GAIIB.com Girls Artificial Intelligence infrastructure Bank)
VALUEtrue.com Not Just CSR but M3EAST – Exponential Acceleration Sustainability Trust-flows MobileMediaMarkets
In addition to professional girls knowledge of markets media and mobile – top 10 life sustaining purposes concerning millennial girls most include Textiles and fashions ( values of celebrities), homes, community services of safety and health, food water and energy security, pensions, rsk insurance and currencies, sub-national place partnerships eg smart sister cities, shared office (hubs) transport and civil engineering … livelihood Education including cultural purposes of science and faiths and marriage of SI and humanI (aka jack ma's loveq)
…Are you interested in association with either of 2 main partnership network below or any of market purposes above?
Voices & SDG Purposes demanded by
Asia’s poorest quarter billion under 30s women
(includes 4 hemi-pops- half of humaity who live in east;
Half who are women, half under 30, poorer half)
Formed at Norman Macrae’s death in june 2010
Adam Smith Scholars Glasgow July 2010 on
Journal of Social Business Partners June 2010 on
Economist Boardroom remembrance Network Nov 2010
Japan Embassy Dhaka celebration of 40th future history
Laureates – founders of brac and bkash 2012
2016 Chinese students celebrations of Sir Fazle Abed 80th
Norman Macrae Family Foundation – normanmacrae.net
From Norman’s last days as teenager in world war 2 in myanmar he sought to bridge
knowhow networks valuing Adam Smith Trust, Resilience and transparency of community-grounded market Economics since 1748 (read moral sentiments if in need of text) Gandhian post-colonial system designs since London roundtable 1925 where Maria Montessori first merged livelihood education with Gandhi's poverty talisman (while truth) systems design during gandhi's last visit to london hosted at same quakers hall where london's leading open space faciliator -oiur friend colin morley - was to host his last networking event before being slaughtered in 7/7.
Centenary biography of the Economist 1943 with keynsian corpus Christi students to 1948 and Then next 40 years of sub-editing The Economist which included genre of places 40 year future histories downloadable at www.normanmacrae.net
From Japan 1962, and from mid 60s worldwide technology’s centre of entrepreneurial revolution from same time as publication of moores law and celebrations of moon race, and from mid 80s sustainability’s 2025 report included support
of soros and Gorbachev mid 1980s visions for beyond USSR
1988 Launch of club of world class brands for media and maths people who wanted to celebrate hi-trust System design when norman retired from economist and started additional research eg biography of von neumann accompanied various publications for sunday times and fortune. His co-launch of an asian fortnightly economics journal was interrupted by boating accident of Asia Rising's Jim Rohwer