To understand why Mr Trump's 1461 day presidency to end of 2020 was likely to be the most dangerous whomever ruled the wavelengths, BRI.school invites you to co-edit a 7 minute read on a short history of world trade in millennium 2 - see far right column. In Moore's laws maths -this period's exponential rise breaches singularity - for first one computer chip has more switching/analytic capacity than the human brain's cells- tenmoore.com - The Games

  1. trump's 1461 days were natures, AI, SDG destiny's and most dangerous presidency this month's 3 greatest risks to under 30s goodwill webs and english-language edu- brexit, n korea and huawei (see keynesian analysis in next tweet)

INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION 4 : special china thanks: BRI Belt Road IQ -need custom guide rsvp chris.macrae@yahoo.co.uk normanmacrae foundation, DC-text 240 316 8157
Main reason for optimism is leapfrogging - thats when a society/place that was excluded from industrial age networks leapfrogs an old system to a new one thanks to 1000 times more COMstech than 1946; about a third of the world never had wired telephone lines, now almost all have mobile (text version); more than a quarter of the world never had electricity grids, now microsolar is linking in;. Prior to 2017 only Jim Kim open spaced this debated in DC: let's hope all parents and youth do now from usa to china to Rome, from Scotland to Argentina, from Bangalore to Haiti. from . G1 G2. Join Valuetrue.com and QBG -does your place have a JYK to celebrate global youth? futures of Liberty 1 & education 1
1:08 #2030now 3.19
0:39 0.31 1:40 1:02 1.21
...joy jk search 1........ co
Which is your top 100 jim kim video vote for end-poverty tedx wcg..Jim Kim2030nowjimkim2transcripts.doc2030nowjimkim.doc, where world demands women manage poverty why not development?
http://www.tedxwbg.com/ Sources for millennials Happy 2015 dialogues of pih on 1 Ebola 2 how to leverage technology to radically engage patients on health care; UN is 2015 year of all change to sustainability goals... support economistmooc.blogspot.com
Even as the 1960s moon race inspired the world, we need to understand how unequal the opporttunity to innovate had been - even in the 1960s as many as half the world's people had no access to electricity grids so they got their news of the moon race by word of mouth.

Consider 1000-1500- until the last few years of this period , the known world was Europe-Asia and NE Africa; #BR8 the med sea was the main world trade waterway; places facing this sea increasingly developed win-win trades; moreover #BR7 the west asian border to med sea was the start of an amazing overland relay of traders which stretched all the way to china (the silk road was the greatest overland world trade route ever and to sustain its interfacing markets required positive cross-cultural bridging all along its route. Silks and spices from the Chinese end acted like a positive currency- there was much demand for them whose value naturally went up the further they were merchanted back to Europe. Everyone gained for this trading route- you can read marco polo's diaries- perhaps nowhere invested more in artistic celebrations of being a major hub of positive trade than his hometown venice in europe and the town he was asked to govern for 2 years in china Hangzhou which marco described as the great town of markets in the world.)

What happened towards 1500 that 2 long shipping routes were discovered by north europeans- the new world of the ameriucas to the west (#BR6 N, #BR10 what we now call Latin America), and a way of reaching the @BR2 South Asian coastal Belt (starting with the indian subcontinent) by sailing around africa. A ship captain couldnt affird such a long return voyage unless he goit what trade he wanted- soon this big ships were equipped with gun power and crews were pressganged or even enslaved. Next in the process was colonising. So it was that nations became big by pludering economies of other peoples places. Back in 1500 places economic size was corelated with population. Soon Britain grew at the expense particularly of the Indian subcontiuent. Mainly Britain and France colonised Africa too, Spain andPotrtugal colonised Latin America. North America was settled by a mixyure of Europeans whose declaration of Indendence in 1776 ended any attempt by Britain to colonise America, But we should note that the USA was built on a sort of internal colonisation - natives had theor places taken over and slaves were used to do most of the hard labour. In effect the old war's colonial ways casued the 2 world wars of the fkirst half of the 20th C. From 1946 most of the world's countries regained their independence but starting from (mainly undeveloped states - poverty that the colonia era had gtraped them in).

Ironically whule the UDA came to tghe resuce of the old workld and from 1946 helped relaunch the two biggest losers of world war 2 Germsny and Japan, american (not withstandiong thair family trees origins) had previously had little modern of knowledge of Eurasia but were pulled into peacekeeping and the cold war with russia through the sceond half of the 20th C. Whilst there was some understanding of the extraoerdinary progress japanese enginers made with electornics, civil and other enginnering, the rise and rise of the east and the often difficult bodrers that had been caused by British and Jpoanese colonisation of the region are not deeply studied by most Americans or their media. It should be the best news the world has ever seen that the fifth of the world in chjna tghat closed itself to the world for more than a centiry after Brfits has offered opium as a gtrading currency in 1860 is now as entrepreneurial as anywhere. With over half of tghe world's ;people facikng either the sout asia or east asia coastal belts, the opportunity the east is cfreating to win0pwin gtrade oin line with moore's ever increasing technology should make sustainable youth worlwdie the gfreatesty positive curency-invetsment the human race has ever mapped. But this is not how USA or the block of coungtriues ruled by the Euro have marketed transapfrently. Instead we are caught in the Keynsian crisis of economist not valuing the hippocratic oathes he had published as tghe final chapter of the ngeneral throy of employment money and interest. The 2020s are likely to make the system designs our tech spreads irreversible- will the end game be big brother extinction or little sister sustainability?

Saturday, May 6, 2017

It’s a heady time for global development finance. The World Bank is articulating a plan to end extreme poverty by 2030, and a new infrastructure fund created by China has raised eyebrows in Washington and dollars around the world. All the while, private-sector innovations are reshaping the needs of emerging market economies.
Jim Yong Kim, the the HIV doctor and former Dartmouth College president who has headed up the World Bank since 2012, stopped by Quartz’s headquarters in New York this week to talk about the fast-changing world of development finance and his goal of ridding the world of extreme poverty. This transcript has been lightly edited for length and clarity.

On the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank

Quartz: The US hasn’t exactly been thrilled with China’s new infrastructure bank. How do you feel about it?
Kim: As we sit back and look at the new development plan—17 goals, 169 targets— [and the goals of] the United Nations, that’s a multitrillion-dollar agenda. You know, all the multilateral development banks together are less than $200 billion. [So] how are we going to get there? We’ve been saying again and again and again that it’s going to take a new kind of collaboration.
There’s not anywhere near enough financing for infrastructure in Asia. And China, they’ve defined Asia very broadly—from Japan to the Middle East is really Asia now.
We look forward to working very closely with them. We just want them to use international standards.
The enemy is poverty, not another institution.

On the shortage of “bankable” projects

What’s been the holdup in financing all this infrastructure?
The problem is not capital. There’s so much capital sitting on the sidelines. We have very low interest rates; pension funds and sovereign wealth funds are sitting around thinking, isn’t there a better way for us to use our equity and have it grow a little bit more vigorously? And of course one potential area of investment would be infrastructure in developing countries.
But the key is, there are not enough bankable projects—bankable projects meaning, have you done all the work to, say, ensure that a hydroelectric power facility in the Democratic Republic of Congo [meets lending requirements]. None of the individual multilateral development banks can fund it unless we get involved and do all the project preparation—literally things like looking at the species of fish in the river to make sure we don’t make some species extinct over time. You [also] have to create almost a governance corridor to protect it, to make sure that upheavals in governments in that area are not going to lead to the stopping of this project.
The good news is it’s all possible and it could be a very good investment, but unless groups like the World Bank and the African Development Bank get involved, it really won’t happen.

On why he’s so impressed with Alibaba’s Jack Ma

What can we learn from China’s record of using development to fight poverty?
You know, I’ve gotten very close to Jack Ma of Alibaba. He reached out to me personally because they want to take the Alibaba model to Africa, they want to take the Alibaba model to South Asia, and to Latin America, and I’m sure you guys know about their model, but I’m just amazed at what these people can do. If China is not capable of delivering packages in time, what do you do? You take a bunch of farmers and create all these package delivery companies. And now, people in rural areas who otherwise might have gone to the city or not found work are running their own companies, and these are former farmers.
I saw him at Davos. The latest thing he told me was, “We’re identifying the villages where there is no access to internet. Then we go out there, as long as there is a road and there is cell phone service—and there is cell phone service just about everywhere—and I”—Jack told me this—”I go and find two or three young women who are very savvy and have learned computers. I give them a computer, and they start taking orders for the whole village.”
Everybody wants a washing machine, everybody wants these basic things, and they realize that they can either get in a car and drive 70 km to the city and buy a washing machine, or they can buy it online for half the cost and [get] a much better quality machine.
Now that the trucks are going out there delivering the washing machines, they are going back [to the cities] with products from that village, right? He is really changing, in a pretty fundamental way, the model of development. And very soon he’s going to have 2 billion customers. I facilitated meetings between Jack and various leaders of different countries, because he really wants to do this.
He’s very humble, extremely humble, and he’s now one of the wealthiest people in China. He doesn’t care about it; what he really wants is to contribute to development.
Alibaba founder Jack Ma.
Alibaba founder Jack Ma. (Reuters/Edgar Su)
The other thing I love about Jack is he’s turning banking completely on its head. He says that by just watching people’s online behavior—how quickly they pay, how quickly they send their goods out, when they need money, when they don’t need money, how honest they are in providing feedback—that he has developed algorithm after algorithm for them, so he knows somebody’s credit risk and the volume they can handle the minute they put their [loan] application in.
Traditional banking is [to] know your customer, right? Shake your hand, what’s your collateral, what’s this person like. And he says, “I never want to meet these people. I don’t need to see their face. I don’t need to know anything about them. All I need to know is how they behave inside the Alibaba system.”
If you take that innovation, when you’re on Alibaba [and] you have to access to financial services, is that shadow banking, or is that innovative finance? There’s an argument right now in China. I think it’s incredible.

On the impact of internet access

We’re very interested in the idea of the next billion people to get access to the internet, who are coming online largely via mobile, mainly in emerging markets. What does this trend mean for development?
It’s huge for us. Our next world development report is going to be [about] the internet, and we are looking at very specific things for how getting online can transform prospects for development.
What would it mean [for example] if Alibaba could actually function in Africa? What it might mean is that we would focus more on providing energy in mini micro-grids, so you wouldn’t necessarily have to build these huge grids because it wouldn’t be the classic industrialization model of development. It would be different, it would be more village-ized, if you will. So you have to focus on roads, you have to focus on internet access, and we could probably get away with solar- and wind-based mini-grids, at least for a time. This is just really sort of greenfield thinking; we’re not sure if it’ll work, but we’ve got to look at it.

On the theme of Africa rising

What do you think of Africa’s potential for development?
I have been completely smitten with Africa for about 20 years. I’m an HIV doctor. From 1995 to 2000, my exposure to Africa was a continent that was in trouble—there were very high rates of HIV infection; no prospects for treatment; the notion that in some countries, 25% to 30% of the people were living with HIV; life expectancy had dropped 10, 15 years in some countries. It was at a terrible time.
If you had death rates and life expectancy that continued to plummet like that in Africa, you would not see Africa rising.
Now we have almost 10 million people win Africa on treatment. Like [in] lots of other places, it’s a manageable chronic disease now.
 What would it mean if Alibaba could actually function in Africa? 
I feel like I have a personal stake in ensuring that Africa, in fact, rises.
What are the obstacles? There’ve been huge discoveries of mineral wealth, oil, precious metals, all throughout Africa. But we know that there is the so-called natural resources curse, where you have a rise in GDP, but because mineral extraction is not a job-rich kind of development path, you have rise in GDP without very much benefit for everyone. A huge part of Africa rising is going to have to be to ensure that mineral wealth is translated into real benefits for the entire population.
The other thing is agricultural productivity. Agricultural productivity has risen in so many places and not so much in Africa; Africa has really lagged behind for all different kinds of reasons—lack of power, lack of water, lack of access to new seeds, lack of access to technology that can increase productivity. But we know that in China, a 10% increase in agricultural productivity had four times greater impact than a 10% increase in manufacturing productivity. So we’ve really got to focus on agriculture in Africa, [where] 70% of the people live in rural areas still.

Do you ever foresee a time when the US does not insist on choosing the World Bank president?

I was the first World Bank president to ever have to actually go through an election. My friend [Nigerian finance minister Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala] was a real candidate, and there was a real vote, and I had to go to 22 countries in 14 days and campaign. I know for sure that there will always be a campaign now, there will always be other candidates.
Whether the president will always be an American, I don’t know. … But I think that you will never again see an IMF or a World Bank election without very strong contention, coming especially from the developing world.

Read other QZ & A interviews with…

No comments:

Post a Comment