|To understand why Mr Trump's 1461 day presidency to end of 2020 was likely to be the most dangerous whomever ruled the wavelengths, BRI.school invites you to co-edit a 7 minute read on a short history of world trade in millennium 2 - see far right column. In Moore's laws maths -this period's exponential rise breaches singularity - for first one computer chip has more switching/analytic capacity than the human brain's cells- tenmoore.com - The Games|
INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION 4 : special china thanks: BRI Belt Road IQ -need custom guide rsvp email@example.com normanmacrae foundation, DC-text 240 316 8157
Main reason for optimism is leapfrogging - thats when a society/place that was excluded from industrial age networks leapfrogs an old system to a new one thanks to 1000 times more COMstech than 1946; about a third of the world never had wired telephone lines, now almost all have mobile (text version); more than a quarter of the world never had electricity grids, now microsolar is linking in;. Prior to 2017 only Jim Kim open spaced this debated in DC: let's hope all parents and youth do now from usa to china to Rome, from Scotland to Argentina, from Bangalore to Haiti. from . G1 G2. Join Valuetrue.com and QBG -does your place have a JYK to celebrate global youth? futures of Liberty 1 & education 1
|Even as the 1960s moon race inspired the world, we need to understand how unequal the opporttunity to innovate had been - even in the 1960s as many as half the world's people had no access to electricity grids so they got their news of the moon race by word of mouth.|
Consider 1000-1500- until the last few years of this period , the known world was Europe-Asia and NE Africa; #BR8 the med sea was the main world trade waterway; places facing this sea increasingly developed win-win trades; moreover #BR7 the west asian border to med sea was the start of an amazing overland relay of traders which stretched all the way to china (the silk road was the greatest overland world trade route ever and to sustain its interfacing markets required positive cross-cultural bridging all along its route. Silks and spices from the Chinese end acted like a positive currency- there was much demand for them whose value naturally went up the further they were merchanted back to Europe. Everyone gained for this trading route- you can read marco polo's diaries- perhaps nowhere invested more in artistic celebrations of being a major hub of positive trade than his hometown venice in europe and the town he was asked to govern for 2 years in china Hangzhou which marco described as the great town of markets in the world.)
What happened towards 1500 that 2 long shipping routes were discovered by north europeans- the new world of the ameriucas to the west (#BR6 N, #BR10 what we now call Latin America), and a way of reaching the @BR2 South Asian coastal Belt (starting with the indian subcontinent) by sailing around africa. A ship captain couldnt affird such a long return voyage unless he goit what trade he wanted- soon this big ships were equipped with gun power and crews were pressganged or even enslaved. Next in the process was colonising. So it was that nations became big by pludering economies of other peoples places. Back in 1500 places economic size was corelated with population. Soon Britain grew at the expense particularly of the Indian subcontiuent. Mainly Britain and France colonised Africa too, Spain andPotrtugal colonised Latin America. North America was settled by a mixyure of Europeans whose declaration of Indendence in 1776 ended any attempt by Britain to colonise America, But we should note that the USA was built on a sort of internal colonisation - natives had theor places taken over and slaves were used to do most of the hard labour. In effect the old war's colonial ways casued the 2 world wars of the fkirst half of the 20th C. From 1946 most of the world's countries regained their independence but starting from (mainly undeveloped states - poverty that the colonia era had gtraped them in).
Ironically whule the UDA came to tghe resuce of the old workld and from 1946 helped relaunch the two biggest losers of world war 2 Germsny and Japan, american (not withstandiong thair family trees origins) had previously had little modern of knowledge of Eurasia but were pulled into peacekeeping and the cold war with russia through the sceond half of the 20th C. Whilst there was some understanding of the extraoerdinary progress japanese enginers made with electornics, civil and other enginnering, the rise and rise of the east and the often difficult bodrers that had been caused by British and Jpoanese colonisation of the region are not deeply studied by most Americans or their media. It should be the best news the world has ever seen that the fifth of the world in chjna tghat closed itself to the world for more than a centiry after Brfits has offered opium as a gtrading currency in 1860 is now as entrepreneurial as anywhere. With over half of tghe world's ;people facikng either the sout asia or east asia coastal belts, the opportunity the east is cfreating to win0pwin gtrade oin line with moore's ever increasing technology should make sustainable youth worlwdie the gfreatesty positive curency-invetsment the human race has ever mapped. But this is not how USA or the block of coungtriues ruled by the Euro have marketed transapfrently. Instead we are caught in the Keynsian crisis of economist not valuing the hippocratic oathes he had published as tghe final chapter of the ngeneral throy of employment money and interest. The 2020s are likely to make the system designs our tech spreads irreversible- will the end game be big brother extinction or little sister sustainability?
Wednesday, March 13, 2019
I had a quick word with Robb at Brookings yesterday where he was on Panel Intel sponsored on US and China Artificial Intelligence https://www.brookings.edu/events/how-china-and-the-u-s-are-advancing-artificial-intelligence/ I asked if it was ok to specifically intro the two of you as people often in both Shanghai and US
I have met Peter several times and China-global cooperation events as well as at the 2017 http://www.aiib.org summit in S Korea (this summer its 100 banking delegations convene in Luxembourg! - since 2 of the top advisers to AIIB are the Brits Sir Danny Alexander in Beijing and my father's friend Lord Stern at LSE this is one of the few spaces where english language knowledge gets a reasoned hearing in today's world of brexit and Trumpdom)- whilst Peter is based in Dc he is often in Shanghai office
My own viewpoint is we are never going to help youth be the sustainable generation unless we clarify that smart SDG under 30s communities all over world need mainly common solutions to knowledge such as livelihood tech skills (where AI broadly means we human brains will soon be outnumbered by orders of magnitude more computer brains now that Moores law means each chip has many billions times more analytic capacity than time of moon race and G5 promises at least 100 fold moore connectivity than G4) ,, community markets include health service , local fashion superstars ... (the transformed purpose of the olympics)
Therefore it will be disastrous if usa and china go to war on ai in every market which seemed to be yesterday's view. In particular a PWC report claiming that China and USA are 70% of AI's world market was mentioned - sounds wrongly framed to me but .. anyhow as a counter example This linkedin interview is heartening to me -summarising his legacy from world bank Jim Y Kim says before leaving world bank mainly to ficus on african infrastructure banking he instituted an annual ranking of nations on human capital- japan singapore korea and norway come top - so we should not exclude these peoples from humanising AI if I understand Jim Kim and Antonio Guterres plan let alone Masa-Son's Vision Fund
I see AI as soft infrastructure that needs investment mapping at same time that "hard" inftrastructure is mapped to connect world trade routes Belt's Superports, Continents Railroads pipes etc
I thought you might be interested to contact each other whether or not you agree with my view. There are so few americans who really have experienced how fast china is being remade (with half a billion under 30s livelihoods driving this)
Ten years ago i first met the part of intel that has a partnership with my favorite womens empowerment networks in bangladesh- there is a lot to learn from what bangladesh has now connected cooperatively between ngos bill gates jack ma mit mpesa's original coders in kenya and others. That may be aside to your work but it is girl empowerment cases that particularly upset me with the way ai and belt road discussions are mainly framed in DC currently. In China AI is already a curriculum (even a literacy) for 7 year old girls up to share their humanity with- why not america?
chris macrae bethesda 1 240 316 8157 Norman Macrae Foundation The Economist's End Poverty Economist and Tech Futurist Norman Macrae : Books & Surveys at The Economist
ps 2 exceptions to maddening debates in DC are Axios which Intel is a major sponsor of AI on and Cheng Li the main scholar at Brookings who is actually chinese american. I assume you already know how to connect with these sources as much as you need but say if i can help