To understand why Mr Trump's 1461 day presidency to end of 2020 was likely to be the most dangerous whomever ruled the wavelengths, BRI.school invites you to co-edit a 7 minute read on a short history of world trade in millennium 2 - see far right column. In Moore's laws maths -this period's exponential rise breaches singularity - for first one computer chip has more switching/analytic capacity than the human brain's cells- tenmoore.com - The Games

  1. trump's 1461 days were natures, AI, SDG destiny's and most dangerous presidency this month's 3 greatest risks to under 30s goodwill webs and english-language edu- brexit, n korea and huawei (see keynesian analysis in next tweet)

INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION 4 : special china thanks: BRI Belt Road IQ -need custom guide rsvp chris.macrae@yahoo.co.uk normanmacrae foundation, DC-text 240 316 8157
Main reason for optimism is leapfrogging - thats when a society/place that was excluded from industrial age networks leapfrogs an old system to a new one thanks to 1000 times more COMstech than 1946; about a third of the world never had wired telephone lines, now almost all have mobile (text version); more than a quarter of the world never had electricity grids, now microsolar is linking in;. Prior to 2017 only Jim Kim open spaced this debated in DC: let's hope all parents and youth do now from usa to china to Rome, from Scotland to Argentina, from Bangalore to Haiti. from . G1 G2. Join Valuetrue.com and QBG -does your place have a JYK to celebrate global youth? futures of Liberty 1 & education 1
1:08 #2030now 3.19
0:39 0.31 1:40 1:02 1.21
...joy jk search 1........ co
Which is your top 100 jim kim video vote for end-poverty tedx wcg..Jim Kim2030nowjimkim2transcripts.doc2030nowjimkim.doc, where world demands women manage poverty why not development?
http://www.tedxwbg.com/ Sources for millennials Happy 2015 dialogues of pih on 1 Ebola 2 how to leverage technology to radically engage patients on health care; UN is 2015 year of all change to sustainability goals... support economistmooc.blogspot.com
Even as the 1960s moon race inspired the world, we need to understand how unequal the opporttunity to innovate had been - even in the 1960s as many as half the world's people had no access to electricity grids so they got their news of the moon race by word of mouth.

Consider 1000-1500- until the last few years of this period , the known world was Europe-Asia and NE Africa; #BR8 the med sea was the main world trade waterway; places facing this sea increasingly developed win-win trades; moreover #BR7 the west asian border to med sea was the start of an amazing overland relay of traders which stretched all the way to china (the silk road was the greatest overland world trade route ever and to sustain its interfacing markets required positive cross-cultural bridging all along its route. Silks and spices from the Chinese end acted like a positive currency- there was much demand for them whose value naturally went up the further they were merchanted back to Europe. Everyone gained for this trading route- you can read marco polo's diaries- perhaps nowhere invested more in artistic celebrations of being a major hub of positive trade than his hometown venice in europe and the town he was asked to govern for 2 years in china Hangzhou which marco described as the great town of markets in the world.)

What happened towards 1500 that 2 long shipping routes were discovered by north europeans- the new world of the ameriucas to the west (#BR6 N, #BR10 what we now call Latin America), and a way of reaching the @BR2 South Asian coastal Belt (starting with the indian subcontinent) by sailing around africa. A ship captain couldnt affird such a long return voyage unless he goit what trade he wanted- soon this big ships were equipped with gun power and crews were pressganged or even enslaved. Next in the process was colonising. So it was that nations became big by pludering economies of other peoples places. Back in 1500 places economic size was corelated with population. Soon Britain grew at the expense particularly of the Indian subcontiuent. Mainly Britain and France colonised Africa too, Spain andPotrtugal colonised Latin America. North America was settled by a mixyure of Europeans whose declaration of Indendence in 1776 ended any attempt by Britain to colonise America, But we should note that the USA was built on a sort of internal colonisation - natives had theor places taken over and slaves were used to do most of the hard labour. In effect the old war's colonial ways casued the 2 world wars of the fkirst half of the 20th C. From 1946 most of the world's countries regained their independence but starting from (mainly undeveloped states - poverty that the colonia era had gtraped them in).

Ironically whule the UDA came to tghe resuce of the old workld and from 1946 helped relaunch the two biggest losers of world war 2 Germsny and Japan, american (not withstandiong thair family trees origins) had previously had little modern of knowledge of Eurasia but were pulled into peacekeeping and the cold war with russia through the sceond half of the 20th C. Whilst there was some understanding of the extraoerdinary progress japanese enginers made with electornics, civil and other enginnering, the rise and rise of the east and the often difficult bodrers that had been caused by British and Jpoanese colonisation of the region are not deeply studied by most Americans or their media. It should be the best news the world has ever seen that the fifth of the world in chjna tghat closed itself to the world for more than a centiry after Brfits has offered opium as a gtrading currency in 1860 is now as entrepreneurial as anywhere. With over half of tghe world's ;people facikng either the sout asia or east asia coastal belts, the opportunity the east is cfreating to win0pwin gtrade oin line with moore's ever increasing technology should make sustainable youth worlwdie the gfreatesty positive curency-invetsment the human race has ever mapped. But this is not how USA or the block of coungtriues ruled by the Euro have marketed transapfrently. Instead we are caught in the Keynsian crisis of economist not valuing the hippocratic oathes he had published as tghe final chapter of the ngeneral throy of employment money and interest. The 2020s are likely to make the system designs our tech spreads irreversible- will the end game be big brother extinction or little sister sustainability?

Sunday, April 12, 2020

camille this fareed viewpoint is essential to youth development everywhere, not to mention our species- i dont have joannas email- can you pass it on?- 

ccn's fareed was one of the main comperes of wise 2017 when patrick was the laureate-its critical next week's 2 days of virtual wise summit includes totally opposite scenarios of how long everyone will only be able to work and educate online in so called developed world as well as what consequences will be in developing world- i dont know who in wise or OSUN gets this but from the african and other lenses you care most about i suggest only patricks networks can linkin just in time (unless someone like jim kim is suddenly going to reconnect hos responsibilities to youth- it would seem to me a real unga 75th birthday in new york with nigerian host is as unlikely to happen as olympics- every real way youth had been promised olympics unga cop26 has been torn asunder by the usual big suspects)

just my 5 cents worths but so many tipping points including whether we can get back to climate and other sdgs as well as saving lives from ravaging viruses seem to me bang into each other- why finace has big bangs but much deeper applications of youth lives never do in policy makers processes is beyond my ken

chris washington dc whatsapp +1 240 316 8157 
seachanges education  http://www.masterclass100.com valuation http://www.valuetrue.com   nations   worldclassnations.com 






----- Forwarded message -----
From: Fareed’s Global Briefing <globalbriefing@newsletters.cnn.com>
To: "chris.macrae@yahoo.co.uk" <chris.macrae@yahoo.co.uk>
Sent: Friday, 10 April 2020, 18:32:21 GMT-4
Subject: Fareed: An Urgent Call to Update Our Models

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Insights, analysis and must reads from CNN's Fareed Zakaria and the Global Public Square team, compiled by Global Briefing editor Chris Good

April 10, 2020
Fareed: An Urgent Call to Update Our Covid Models
“Something important is happening as the coronavirus crisis continues,” Fareed writes in his latest Washington Post column. “Estimates of its lethality keep going down.”

The US government’s prediction (of 100,000–240,000 American deaths) is poised for a downward revision, according to Dr. Anthony Fauci, and a prominent University of Washington model has repeatedly shrunk its projection of US deaths, from 81,000 to 60,415, Fareed writes. Predictions of needed hospital beds by state, offered by the same model, have proven too high.

Why? It may have something to do with the data, Fareed writes: Without widespread testing, epidemiologists may have overestimated Covid-19’s fatality rate. And as Stanford’s John Ioannidis tells Fareed, a small underlying flaw in an exponential model can lead to estimates that are off by many fold. “We have shut down the economy based on models, understandably worried about worst-case scenarios,” Fareed writes. “But models are only as good as the data that shapes them.”
The Steepest Free Fall Ever
The world is in its steepest economic free fall ever, Adam Tooze writes for Foreign Policy, and the economy as we knew it may not come back. The US economy is expected to shrink as much as it did during the Great Depression, he writes, but “whereas the contraction after 1929 stretched over a four-year period, the coronavirus implosion will happen over the next three months. There has never been a crash landing like this before.” The damage in large, developing China and India is difficult to measure, he writes. One estimate suggests as many as 205 million Chinese workers (more than a quarter of the country’s labor force) may be out of their jobs, as official data don’t cover 290 million migrant workers, the South China Morning Post reported recently. In India’s labor force of 471 million, 100 million are migrant workers, and many “have been sent in headlong flight back to their villages. There has been nothing like it since partition in 1947,” Tooze writes.

The change will be lasting, he suggests: Retail could be permanently swamped by online competitors, a lingering threat of infection will keep consumer activity down, households may save out of caution, and public debt will be rampant—which makes prolonged stagnation more likely than a “V-shaped” recovery. And the reaction, Tooze writes, is hard to predict: “It makes sense to call … for a more active, more visionary government to lead the way out of the crisis. But the question, of course, is what form that will take and which political forces will control it.”
The Opposite of Cooperation
Commentators (including Fareed) have noted that Covid-19 demands global coordination, but Kimberly Ann Elliott writes for the World Politics Review that the opposite is happening: “[A]s the virus spreads, so too are export restrictions, particularly on masks, gloves, gowns and other protective equipment. According to Global Trade Alert’s most recent report, 54 governments had imposed some form of export restrictions as of March 20, including the EU and India, a major exporter of many pharmaceuticals. By April 3, that number had risen to 69 countries with a total of 87 restrictive actions. Some major food-producing countries have also begun limiting exports of wheat and rice, including Russia, Ukraine and Vietnam.”

Elliott notes that last Friday, N95 mask maker 3M “revealed that the [Trump] administration had requested that it stop exporting the masks to Canada and Latin America. Trump followed by saying that he was going to sign a formal order prohibiting exports of masks and other medical supplies.” Brazil and France “claimed that orders they had placed had been redirected to the U.S. after Washington offered higher prices.” Elliott sees all of this as counterproductive, suggesting countries “focus on how to expand the pie, not fight over who gets the biggest slice.”
A Protectionist Wave to Follow?
At the Nikkei Asian Review, James Crabtree notes those trends and predicts a wave of protectionism: “Restrictions are unlikely to stop there,” he writes. “Previous slumps hit particular industries or countries harder than others. This one is global, in the sense that almost no sector will be spared. Calls for tariff protection from politically connected industries are inevitable.”

The cascade will be hard to stop, and poorer and more-trade-dependent nations will lose out, he writes, citing medical supplies as a particularly ominous example of protectionism’s ripples: “Just three countries, China, Germany and the U.S., export 40% of the world's medical personal protective equipment. A few restrictions in a handful of major exporting nations could therefore hit many others, just when they need supplies most.”
Is Printing Money the Answer?
In a recent editorial, the Financial Times suggests it might be. The Bank of England has offered to lend money directly to the UK government, Reuters reports, noting the practice is often derided as “printing money,” though the Bank insists it’s a short-term measure and that the loan will be repaid by year’s end. In the US, the Federal Reserve announced it will buy $2.3 trillion in bonds, injecting cash into the economy in exchange for them. (After the 2008 crash, three rounds of such asset purchases, known as “quantitative easing,” ran through 2014 and amounted to $4.48 trillion.) As The New York Times’ Neil Irwin put it, the Fed has signaled that “[t]here is a rapidly developing shortage of dollars across the economy. And the Fed will do anything it needs to, on any scale imaginable, to end this shortage.”

That may raise the specter of hyperinflation, as happened in 1920s Germany or Zimbabwe under Robert Mugabe: When there’s more money in the economy, a single dollar (or pound or euro) is worth less. But the FT argues there’s precedent for it in a crisis, and that today, the possibility of direct central-bank loans—along with cash payments to the public—"should remain an option,” though they’ll require close coordination with responsible politicians and the strict maintenance of central-bank independence. And in recent years, some have argued the practice isn’t so radical: As John Cassidy wrote for The New Yorker in 2015, Adair Turner, House of Lords member and a former head of the UK’s Financial Services authority, made a compelling argument that money supply and inflation have been decoupled in today’s economy, and it may be better to stop dressing up monetary injections as bond purchases and just print the cash.
New Zealand Goes ‘Sharp and Short’
New Zealand appears to be among few bright spots in the global response to Covid-19, as The Washington Post’s Anna Fifield tells it, writing that daily confirmed cases had dipped to 54 in the country as of Tuesday, there’s little sign of community spread, and Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s decisive reaction seems to be paying off.

The heavily tourism-dependent country “did the unthinkable” and shut its borders on March 19, Fifield writes. “Two days later, Ardern delivered a televised address from her office—the first time since 1982 that an Oval Office-style speech had been given—announcing a coronavirus response alert plan involving four stages, with a full lockdown being Level 4. A group of influential leaders got on the phone with her the following day to urge moving to Level 4.” And with that, the country entered what Ardern has insisted on: a four-week lockdown, complete with calm and encouraging text communications from the government. As one business leader told Fifield, the goal was to “keep it sharp and short”; if it works, the strategy could result in less prolonged economic pain.

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